On the last trading day before the holiday, trading in the spot market for lead ingots was sluggish [[SMM Morning Lead Meeting Summary]]

Futures Market:

Overnight, LME lead opened at $19,487/mt and fluctuated downward. It hit a low of $1,962/mt in the afternoon. As the US dollar index weakened, LME lead rebounded and reached a high of $1,982.5/mt at the end of the session, eventually closing at $1,975/mt, down 0.1%.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2506 contract opened at 16,885 yuan/mt. After briefly touching a high of 16,905 yuan/mt in the early session, it fluctuated downward. Due to the sluggish performance of spot cargoes, longs reduced their positions, and SHFE lead hit a low of 16,850 yuan/mt in the afternoon. It eventually closed at 16,880 yuan/mt, down 0.35%.

》Click to view historical SMM lead spot quotes

Macro Aspects:

Trump is easing auto tariff policies and may consider using AI chips as a new bargaining chip in negotiations. The US labor market data is weak, and consumer confidence is low. In Q1, China's total service import and export volume increased by 8.7% YoY. China will launch a campaign to clear and rectify market access barriers.

Spot Fundamentals:

In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead was quoted at 16,975-17,005 yuan/mt, with premiums of 50-80 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2505 contract. Jijin lead was quoted at 16,925-16,945 yuan/mt, with premiums of 0-20 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2505 contract. Jinde lead in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai region was also quoted at 16,925-16,945 yuan/mt, with premiums of 0-20 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2505 contract. SHFE lead maintained a high consolidation. With the Labour Day holiday approaching, suppliers were actively quoting and shipping cargoes. The spot premiums and discounts in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai region showed relatively small differences compared to yesterday. However, there were significant discrepancies in the quotes for cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters, with mainstream production quotes at discounts of 170-40 yuan/mt ex-factory against the SHFE lead 2506 contract. Additionally, many secondary lead smelters had implemented production cuts and were generally standing firm on quotes when shipping cargoes. Secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt ex-factory against the SMM 1# lead average price. Downstream battery producers, anticipating production halts during the holiday, had limited spot purchases near the month-end, and inquiries were also limited, resulting in sluggish trading in the spot order market.

Inventory: On April 29, LME lead inventory decreased by 3,750 mt to 267,275 mt. As of April 28, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions tracked by SMM reached 44,500 mt, a decrease of 10,100 mt from April 21 and a decrease of 1,600 mt from April 24.

》Click to view the SMM Metal Industry Chain Database

Today's Lead Price Forecast:

With the Labour Day holiday approaching, the trading atmosphere in the upstream and downstream of the lead industry chain is gradually becoming sluggish. Due to tight raw material supply, production cuts and suspensions are common among secondary lead smelters, and spot cargoes are hardly being shipped. Primary lead suppliers, on the other hand, are actively quoting and shipping cargoes due to the approaching holiday. Downstream battery producers are expected to halt production during the holiday, with long-term contract purchases being the main focus of pre-holiday stockpiling, and most have already completed their inventory build-up. On the day before the holiday, market activity is expected to be even more mediocre, and lead prices are anticipated to maintain a fluctuating trend.